Derrick Henry Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 80.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 78.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 80.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most run-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 41.0% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accrue 18.4 carries in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has garnered 80.1% of his offense's rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has averaged 91.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (99th percentile).
Derrick Henry has been among the best RBs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 3.60 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

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