Derrick Henry Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 85.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 85.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 85.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 46.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accrue 24.2 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has been given 84.4% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.
The Tennessee Titans have utilized some form of misdirection on 50.7% of their plays since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Titans to call the 6th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 50.5 plays per game.
Derrick Henry has run for significantly fewer yards per game (76.0) this season than he did last season (105.0).
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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