Derrick Henry Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:15 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 72.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 70.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 8th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 44.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to garner 23.1 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has generated 94.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football among RBs (99th percentile).

Favors Under

The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Derrick Henry has been a much smaller piece of his team's run game this season (80.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (90.8%).
Derrick Henry's ground effectiveness has declined this season, accumulating a mere 3.45 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.31 rate last season.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has had the 7th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, surrendering just 4.25 yards-per-carry.

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