Derrick Henry Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 93.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 90.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 93.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 5th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.47 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to notch 23.8 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has been given 84.5% of his offense's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has been among the best running backs in the league at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a stellar 3.67 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

Favors Under

The Tennessee Titans will be rolling out backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Derrick Henry has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (90.0) this year than he did last year (105.0).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has had the 9th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing just 4.37 yards-per-carry.

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