Derrick Henry Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs New York Giants · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 8:01 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 95.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 100.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 95.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 4th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 48.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to notch 24.1 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has averaged 105.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (99th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-worst pace among all games this week, averaging 27.34 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to be a less important option in his offense's running game this week (78.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (90.8% in games he has played).
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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