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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 8

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-160/+119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -159 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 6th-most run-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 47.4% red zone run rate.

Derrick Henry has rushed for 0.83 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in football among RBs (97th percentile).

Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-most touchdowns in the league (1.33 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.

The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the worst LB corps in the league this year with their run defense.

The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tennessee Titans have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 52.5 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (77.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (87.5% in games he has played).

The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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