Derrick Henry Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing TD

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-133/+101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -126 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 46.0% red zone run rate.
Derrick Henry has received 85.7% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking in the 97th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has run for 1.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in football among running backs (98th percentile).
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling just 52.2 plays per game.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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