Derrick Henry Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing TD

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-113/-116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 7th-most run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 45.5% red zone run rate.
Derrick Henry has earned 90.9% of his offense's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has rushed for 0.75 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in football among RBs (98th percentile).
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.
The Tennessee Titans have utilized some form of misdirection on 50.7% of their plays since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Titans to call the 6th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 50.5 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have run for the least TDs in football (0.25 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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