Derrick Henry Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing TD

Tennessee Titans vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:40 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+110/-147).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -147.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 6th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 45.1% red zone run rate.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 7th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 64.8 plays per game.
Derrick Henry has been given 100.0% of his team's red zone carries since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has run for 1.00 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (100th percentile).
Opposing teams have run for the 9th-most TDs in the NFL (1.00 per game) versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace among all games this week, averaging 27.47 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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