Derrick Henry Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-149/+113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Henry has earned 87.8% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has rushed for 0.85 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the league among running backs (98th percentile).
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends rank as the worst DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.8 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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