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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 11

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-175/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -175.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most run-oriented team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 47.1% red zone run rate.

Derrick Henry has received 86.2% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.

The Tennessee Titans O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.

Derrick Henry has rushed for 1.00 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in football among RBs (99th percentile).

The Green Bay Packers safeties project as the 26th-worst group of safeties in football this year in regard to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the league this year, totaling just 52.3 plays per game.

The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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