Derrick Henry Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing TD

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 18, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-175/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most run-oriented team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 47.1% red zone run rate.
Derrick Henry has received 86.2% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
The Tennessee Titans O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
Derrick Henry has rushed for 1.00 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in football among RBs (99th percentile).
The Green Bay Packers safeties project as the 26th-worst group of safeties in football this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the league this year, totaling just 52.3 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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