Derrick Henry Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing TD

Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-140/+110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 47.8% red zone run rate.
Derrick Henry has garnered 86.6% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
Derrick Henry has run for 1.12 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the league among running backs (99th percentile).
The Denver Broncos defensive ends profile as the worst DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-least TDs in football (0.62 per game) versus the Denver Broncos defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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