Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 3, 2023 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans offensive approach to skew 1.1% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
A passing game script is implied by the Titans being a -3-point underdog in this game.
Derrick Henry's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 84.3% to 100.0%.
As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Pittsburgh's safety corps has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Titans to pass on 50.8% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Titans.
Derrick Henry's 9.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 15.2.
This year, the imposing Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded a puny 62.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the lowest rate in football.

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