Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 9:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-185/+155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -170 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually prompt increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.
Derrick Henry has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 9.6% since the start of last season, which places him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 84.3% to 100.0%.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties project as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The model projects the Tennessee Titans as the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Titans to call the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Titans have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 54.0 plays per game.
The Titans O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has surrendered the lowest Completion% in the league (72.9%) to RBs since the start of last season (72.9%).