Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-220/+170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Titans offensive scheme to skew 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been something of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the league (41.6 per game) this year.
Derrick Henry's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 84.3% to 95.3%.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Titans to pass on 55.7% of their downs: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The projections expect the Titans to run the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Titans have run the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.9 plays per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Derrick Henry has been incorporated much less in his offense's air attack.
The Tennessee O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

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