Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+152/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -167 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to total 3.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry's 18.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 11.8.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has given up the highest Completion% in the NFL (91.3%) versus running backs this year (91.3%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.7 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Derrick Henry's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 87.9% to 82.4%.

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