Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+220/-300).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Derrick Henry's 18.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 11.8.
The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the 9th-worst unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 47.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 52.5 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Derrick Henry's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 87.9% to 81.2%.

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