Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:56 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+155/-185).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accumulate 3.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry's 17.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 11.8.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has yielded the 6th-highest Completion% in the NFL (87.8%) vs. running backs this year (87.8%).
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling just 52.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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