Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+183/-262).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +183.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a heavy 10-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.3 plays per game.
Derrick Henry has run a route on 40.0% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 56.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.