Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans will be rolling out backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.47 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Derrick Henry's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 87.9% to 84.0%.
The Tennessee Titans O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.