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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 20

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Derrick Henry's pass-game effectiveness has improved this year, accumulating 9.70 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 6.39 rate last year.

Derrick Henry's skills in generating extra yardage have gotten better this season, averaging 11.11 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 9.82 figure last season.

This year, the weak Buffalo Bills defense has been torched for a monstrous 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the most in the league.

When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 49.1% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Derrick Henry has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this season, staying on the field for 58.0% of snaps compared to just 43.0% last season.

This year, the strong Bills defense has yielded a paltry 79.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 5th-lowest rate in football.

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