Derrick Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
Derrick Henry's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 84.3% to 100.0%.
Derrick Henry's pass-game efficiency has improved this year, accumulating 10.58 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 8.94 mark last year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Titans offense to be the 3rd-worst paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.90 seconds per snap.
Derrick Henry's 29.1% Route Participation% this year represents a an impressive decline in his pass attack volume over last year's 39.6% mark.
Derrick Henry has compiled a puny -6.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 11th percentile when it comes to RBs.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

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