Derrick Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:01 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Titans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
Derrick Henry has been among the top pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 22.0 yards per game while checking in at the 89th percentile.
Derrick Henry's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 84.3% to 100.0%.
Derrick Henry's pass-catching effectiveness has improved this season, accumulating 10.44 yards-per-target compared to just 8.94 rate last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.

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