Derrick Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Derrick Henry has been heavily involved in his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 9.9% since the start of last season, which places him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has been among the top RB receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 23.0 yards per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.
Derrick Henry has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among running backs, hauling in a terrific 85.0% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 76th percentile.
Derrick Henry has been among the most effective receivers in the NFL among running backs, averaging a terrific 9.48 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans offense as the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.10 seconds per play.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the NFL.
Derrick Henry has notched a mere -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 21st percentile among RBs.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.