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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Titans being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's contest.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (37.4 per game) this year.

Derrick Henry's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 84.3% to 90.2%.

Derrick Henry comes in as one of the top running backs in the league at generating extra yardage in the passing game, averaging an exceptional 11.07 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 98th percentile.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed the 2nd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (46.0) vs. RBs this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in football (58.4% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Titans.

The leading projections forecast the Titans to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The 5th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Tennessee Titans this year (just 55.0 per game on average).

Derrick Henry has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (29.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (39.6%).

Derrick Henry has put up a meager -4.0 air yards per game this year: just 8th percentile among running backs.

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