Derrick Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Henry's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 84.3% to 92.0%.
Derrick Henry's ability to pick up extra yardage has gotten a boost this season, compiling 12.55 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 10.73 figure last season.
This year, the weak Texans pass defense has given up a massive 85.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 6th-highest rate in the league.
This year, the poor Houston Texans defense has given up the 4th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing running backs: a massive 6.78 yards.
As it relates to safeties getting after the quarterback, Houston's collection of safeties has been awful this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Titans are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their standard approach.
The leading projections forecast the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Titans to call the 10th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 64.3 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 4th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 54.5 plays per game.
When it comes to air yards, Derrick Henry ranks in the lowly 9th percentile among RBs this year, averaging just -4.0 per game.

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