Derrick Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Titans offensive strategy to lean 2.5% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
The Titans are a heavy 13.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Derrick Henry's 91.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year marks a significant progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 84.3% mark.
Derrick Henry's 13.14 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year represents a noteworthy improvement in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last year's 10.7% rate.
This year, the porous Miami Dolphins defense has given up the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing RBs: a whopping 6.45 yards.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 56.1% pass rate.
The leading projections forecast the Titans to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
When it comes to air yards, Derrick Henry ranks in just the 6th percentile among RBs this year, with just -6.0 per game.
Derrick Henry's 9.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 15.2.

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