Derrick Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Tennessee Titans offensive gameplan to tilt 2.7% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see just 130.9 total plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
Derrick Henry's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 84.3% to 95.6%.
Derrick Henry's 12.90 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year indicates a remarkable growth in his effectiveness in the open field over last year's 10.7% mark.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing running backs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 8.25 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 53.5% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The Tennessee Titans have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.
Derrick Henry has accrued a meager -6.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 6th percentile when it comes to RBs.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decline in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Derrick Henry has been featured much less in his offense's pass game.