Derrick Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Carolina Panthers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Derrick Henry's 95.3% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a noteable progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 84.3% figure.
Derrick Henry's ability to grind out extra yardage has gotten a boost this year, compiling 13.58 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 10.73 rate last year.

Favors Under

A running game script is indicated by the Titans being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 50.2% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The fewest plays in football have been called by the Tennessee Titans this year (a mere 52.7 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Panthers, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.7 per game) this year.

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