Derrick Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accumulate 3.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has compiled a whopping 2.0 air yards per game this year: 75th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Derrick Henry's 17.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 11.8.
Derrick Henry has notched substantially more receiving yards per game (25.0) this season than he did last season (17.0).
Derrick Henry's pass-catching efficiency has improved this season, averaging 9.73 yards-per-target vs just 7.61 rate last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling just 52.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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