Derrick Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-109/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Henry has been a big part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 9.2% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has compiled a colossal 2.0 air yards per game this year: 76th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Derrick Henry has accumulated significantly more receiving yards per game (23.0) this year than he did last year (17.0).
Derrick Henry has been among the most efficient receivers in football among running backs, averaging an impressive 8.23 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 94th percentile.
Derrick Henry's skills in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this year, totaling 10.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 8.83 mark last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to call the 6th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 50.5 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Derrick Henry's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 87.9% to 72.7%.