Derrick Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a heavy 10-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.3 plays per game.
Derrick Henry has run a route on 40.0% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has been among the most effective pass-catchers in the NFL among RBs, averaging a stellar 7.27 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 81st percentile.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing RBs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 9.63 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-most in the league.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 56.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
Derrick Henry has totaled a paltry -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 5th percentile among RBs.

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