Derrick Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Henry has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 10.1% this year, which puts him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has been among the best pass-catching RBs this year, averaging a stellar 19.0 yards per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
Derrick Henry's receiving effectiveness has gotten better this year, accumulating 8.65 yards-per-target vs a mere 7.61 rate last year.
Derrick Henry's skills in generating extra yardage have gotten a boost this year, compiling 9.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 8.83 figure last year.
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the slowest in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.7 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.