Derrick Henry Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Carries

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Tennessee Titans as the 6th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 45.0% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
In this week's game, Derrick Henry is projected by the projection model to slot into the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 20.3 carries.
Among all running backs, Derrick Henry ranks in the 97th percentile for carries this year, taking on 73.0% of the workload in his offense's ground game.

Favors Under

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects the Titans offense to be the 3rd-worst paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.90 seconds per snap.
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
Colts defensive ends project as the 5th-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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