Derrick Henry Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-132/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect Derrick Henry to earn 16.5 carries this week, on balance, ranking him in the 88th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Titans offensive strategy to lean 2.5% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
The Titans are a heavy 13.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the least run-focused team among all teams this week with a 41.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Titans to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.

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