Derrick Henry Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-112/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Titans as the 3rd-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 46.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects Derrick Henry to notch 19.5 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Tampa Bay's DE corps has been very bad this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Titans offensive strategy to skew 1.9% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Titans are expected by the model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.5 plays per game.
After making up 80.1% of his offense's carries last year, Derrick Henry has been less involved in the rushing attack this year, currently sitting at only 69.4%.

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