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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Carries
Player Prop Week 1

New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most run-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 41.0% run rate.

THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accrue 18.4 carries in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.

Derrick Henry has garnered 80.1% of his offense's rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among running backs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

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