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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Carries
Player Prop Week 8

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 2nd-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 52.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to total 24.8 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among RBs.

The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the worst LB corps in the league this year with their run defense.

The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tennessee Titans have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 52.5 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to be a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack this week (74.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (87.0% in games he has played).

The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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