Derrick Henry Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Carries

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 8th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 44.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to garner 23.1 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among RBs.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Derrick Henry has been a much smaller piece of his team's run game this season (80.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (90.8%).
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the best LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.