Derrick Henry Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Carries

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to earn 27.4 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
The Houston Texans linebackers grade out as the worst LB corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to be much less involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (73.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (85.2% in games he has played).
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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