Derrick Henry Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-102/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 6th-most run-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 42.9% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accrue 23.9 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has received 85.0% of his offense's rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends rank as the worst DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.8 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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