Derrick Henry Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 18, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to garner 23.6 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has garnered 83.3% of his team's carries this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
The Tennessee Titans O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
The Green Bay Packers safeties project as the 26th-worst group of safeties in football this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the league this year, totaling just 52.3 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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