Derrick Henry Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Carries

Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-116/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 5th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 49.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to earn 26.4 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has received 83.4% of his team's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
The Denver Broncos defensive ends profile as the worst DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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