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D'Ernest Johnson

D'Ernest Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots

D'Ernest Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-152/+116).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.1% pass rate.

The model projects D'Ernest Johnson to accumulate 2.9 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 79th percentile among RBs.

The model projects D'Ernest Johnson to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game this week (9.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (3.5% in games he has played).

The Jacksonville offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The Patriots linebackers grade out as the worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are favored by 6.5 points.

The predictive model expects the Jaguars to run the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The Jaguars have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.

D'Ernest Johnson grades out as one of the weakest RB receiving threats this year, averaging a lowly 0.8 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 22nd percentile among RBs.

D'Ernest Johnson's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 90.4% to 65.1%.

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