D'Ernest Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

D'Ernest Johnson

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 5, 2023 3:36 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Ernest Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a monstrous 60.3 per game on average).
D'Ernest Johnson has compiled a massive 1.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not seem too impressive, but most RBs average negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
With an outstanding 13.1 adjusted yards per target (98th percentile) this year, D'Ernest Johnson places as one of the best pass-catching running backs in the NFL.
With an exceptional 16.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (96th percentile) this year, D'Ernest Johnson has been among the top pass-catching running backs in football in picking up extra yardage.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Cincinnati's collection of safeties has been atrocious this year, projecting as the worst in football.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Jaguars being a massive 10.5-point favorite in this game.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jaguars to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to see the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
With a high 10.6% Route Participation% (18th percentile) this year, D'Ernest Johnson has been among the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in football.
This year, the tough Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has allowed the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing running backs: a puny 5.2 YAC.