Derek Carr TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 29, 2024 4:47 PM EST

Analysis

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-195).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
In this contest, Derek Carr is anticipated by the projections to total the 9th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 35.7.
Derek Carr has been among the best TD throwers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 1.55 per game while ranking in the 76th percentile.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 45.6% red zone pass rate.
The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.28 seconds per play.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 7th-lowest level in the league vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).
The Falcons safeties project as the 9th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

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