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Derek Carr

Derek Carr TD Passes
Player Prop Week 2

Dallas Cowboys vs New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +175 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to pass on 61.3% of their opportunities: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Saints to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 51.7% red zone pass rate.

Opposing teams have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

The New Orleans offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Since the start of last season, the imposing Dallas Cowboys defense has given up a mere 63.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 3rd-best rate in the NFL.

The Cowboys defense has yielded the 10th-fewest passing TDs in the league: 1.22 per game since the start of last season.

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