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Derek Carr

Derek Carr TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-185).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +200 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 136.9 plays on offense run: the highest number among all games this week.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.

The predictive model expects Derek Carr to throw 37.0 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.

Derek Carr has been among the best touchdown passers in football this year, averaging an impressive 1.57 per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Cleveland's group of CBs has been lousy this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Saints to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 48.9% red zone pass rate.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.

The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest clip in football against the Cleveland Browns defense this year (62.5% Adjusted Completion%).

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