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Derek Carr

Derek Carr TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-103/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -133.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Saints to run the 8th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Saints have run the 3rd-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 60.9 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

With a stellar 67.2% Adjusted Completion% (77th percentile) last year, Derek Carr has been among the most on-target passers in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 5-point advantage, the Saints are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.

The model projects the Saints to be the 5th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 50.8% red zone pass rate.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Panthers, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a measly 27.9 per game) last year.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints ranks as the 5th-worst in football last year.

Last year, the daunting Panthers defense has conceded a meager 1.12 passing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the best rate in football.

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