Derek Carr TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

TD Passes

New Orleans Saints vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 20, 2023 1:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-164).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -161 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -164.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Saints this year (a colossal 63.7 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Derek Carr to attempt 36.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Saints ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Jacksonville's collection of CBs has been terrific this year, projecting as the best in the league.

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